The Societal Value of Vaccines: Expert-Based Conceptual Framework and Methods Using COVID-19 Vaccines as a Case Study.

Health technology assessments (HTAs) of vaccines typically focus on the direct health benefits to individuals and healthcare systems. COVID-19 highlighted the widespread societal impact of infectious diseases and the value of vaccines in averting adverse clinical consequences and in maintaining or resuming social and economic activities. Using COVID-19 as a case study, this research work aimed to set forth a conceptual framework capturing the broader value elements of vaccines and to identify appropriate methods to quantify value elements not routinely considered in HTAs. A two-step approach was adopted, combining a targeted literature review and three rounds of expert elicitation based on a modified Delphi method, leading to a conceptual framework of 30 value elements related to broader health effects, societal and economic impact, public finances, and uncertainty value. When applying the framework to COVID-19 vaccines in post-pandemic settings, 13 value elements were consensually rated highly important by the experts for consideration in HTAs. The experts reviewed over 10 methods that could be leveraged to quantify broader value elements and provided technical forward-looking recommendations. Limitations of the framework and the identified methods were discussed. This study supplements ongoing efforts aimed towards a broader recognition of the full societal value of vaccines.

Should We Pay for Scientific Knowledge Spillovers? The Underappreciated Value of "Failed" R&D Efforts.

Recent experience with COVID-19 has reminded us of the importance of scientific progress in enabling pharmaceutical innovation. Developing novel therapies is a highly risky but rewarding process: it not only produces innovative drugs, but also valuable scientific knowledge that benefits the community of innovators. This paper examines whether the existing reward system for pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) leads to socially optimal levels of scientific knowledge generation and sharing, with a particular focus on the value of failures in the pharmaceutical R&D efforts. We first outline a conceptual approach based on the idea that pharmaceutical R&D efforts produce both medicines and scientific knowledge, and illustrate this with some examples of how failures may generate information beneficial to concurrent and subsequent R&D efforts. We then summarize the relatively small literature on failures in pharmaceutical R&D and their impact on R&D decision making. Lastly, we discuss several market-based and nonmarket-based policy approaches that can address potential shortcomings in the current reward system which may lead to suboptimal R&D and knowledge sharing.

Invisible Resilience: The Value Of Medical Technology In Reducing Population And Health Systems’ Vulnerability To COVID-19

IntroductionCOVID-19 has exposed population and health systems’ vulnerability to a highly infectious disease. People with diabetes have a higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and death than those without. Medicines that control blood glucose reduce this risk. We quantified COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths averted by diabetes medicines in the UK during the March-May 2020 wave.MethodsWe estimated COVID-19 hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions averted and COVID-19 hospital deaths avoided by diabetes medicines, considering a counterfactual where those medicines were not available. We used published UK-data sources on diabetes prevalence, proportion of patients achieving diabetes control with medicines, COVID-19 infection risk, probabilities for COVID-19 hospital admission, subsequent ICU admission and hospital death. We calculated the relative risk reduction of controlled vs. uncontrolled diabetes on COVID-19 hospital or ICU admission (71% and 66%, respectively), and hospital death (38%) from the UK Open Safely data.ResultsDiabetes medicines are estimated to have averted 17,417 hospital admissions, 2,752 ICU-admissions and 438 hospital deaths due to COVID-19 compared to a counterfactual where those medicines had not been available in the UK.ConclusionsEffective medicines to control diabetes contribute to population and health systems resilience against COVID-19. Health technology assessment and policy makers should recognize that adoption and usage of health technology reduces societies’ vulnerability to similar shocks.

How Should the World Pay for a Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Vaccine?

The potential health and economic value of a vaccine for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is self-evident given nearly 2 million deaths, "collateral" loss of life as other conditions go untreated, and massive economic damage. Results from the first licensed products are very encouraging; however, there are important reasons why we will likely need second and third generation vaccines. Dedicated incentives and funding focused explicitly on nurturing and advancing competing second and third generation vaccines are essential. This article proposes a collaborative, market-based financing mechanism for the world to incentivize and pay for the development of, and provide equitable access to, second and third generation COVID-19 vaccines. Specifically, we propose consideration of a Benefit-Based Advance Market Commitment (BBAMC). The BBAMC uses health technology assessment to determine value-based prices to guarantee overall market revenues, not revenue for any specific product or company. The poorest countries would not pay a value-based price but a discounted "tail-price." Innovators must agree to supply them at this tail price or to facilitate technology transfer to local licensees at low or zero cost to enable them to supply at this price. We expect these purchases to be paid for in full or large part by global donors. The BBAMC therefore sets prices in relation to value, protects intellectual property rights, encourages competition, and ensures all populations get access to vaccines, subject to agreed priority allocation rules.